Friday, March 10–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins.
All week long the marketplace reckoned the U.S. jobs report Friday morning would be the main focal point of the week. However, a major U.S. financial institution is in big trouble and the marketplace is anxious. SVB Financial, the holding company for Silicon Valley Bank and the 16th largest U.S. commercial bank, dropped 60% in stock value after an emergency $2.25 billion capital increase to cover $1.8 billion in losses on its $21 billion bond portfolio. The bank is also a big player in crypto currencies, which has cryptos under pressure late this week. A Barron’s headline today reads: “Bitcoin plunges below $20,000 with little reason to buy; it could get worse fast.”
Said broker SP Angel in an email dispatch: “Markets look vulnerable to further shocks as the Silicon Valley Bank collapse in California lends weight to a risk-off strategy. To quote Warren Buffett: ‘Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.’ Every institution holding treasuries is now sitting on paper losses and will be forced to crystalize real losses if required to sell. Shares in JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo, the largest U.S. lenders by assets, all fell by between 4.1% and 6.2%.”
Added Criag Erlam of OANDA: “Ultimately, what we’re seeing today is a very defensive response to a series of events that have left investors with many more questions than answers, and fearing further ripple effects in the financial sector. It’s understandable but yet unclear how long that will last and whether it will worsen.”
Traders are still awaiting the February U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department on Friday morning. The key non-farm payrolls component of the report is expected to show a rise of 225,000 jobs, following a mammoth rise of 517,000 in the January report. Look for higher volatility in many markets is the non-farm jobs print misses expectations.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are weaker and trading around $75.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.847%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the monthly Treasury budget statement.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down and hit a two-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,000.00 and then at 4,050.00. Support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,920.00 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,300.00 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,056.25 and then at the March low of 11,964.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a three-week high on safe-haven demand in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 127 25/32 and then at 129 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 126 3/32 and then at 125 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are sharply higher and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 112.13.0 and then at 112.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 111.20.5 and then at 111.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are a bit firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0700 and then at this week’s high of 1.0758. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0590 and then at 1.0550. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
April Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and hit a two-week low in early U.S. trading. Bears have gained the overall near-term technical advantage with this week’s selling pressure. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $76.00 and then at $77.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $74.00 and then at $73.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Risk aversion in the marketplace late this week is likely to limit buying interest in grains today. Soybean market bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall chart advantage.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff