Global stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open the New York day session higher on hopes the U.S. Congress and the Trump administration can come to agreement on a new Covid-19 stimulus package. House Speaker Pelosi set a deadline for today on getting a deal completed. Now, some in the marketplace sense a deal could be reached by the end of today. Others remain doubtful. Corporate earnings reports are also in focus at present.
Meantime, trader and investor risk appetite is being squelched by the Covid news that is getting worse every day. Infections are rising in Europe, the U.S. and South America. No vaccine coming to the public is in sight. However, there is a consensus in the marketplace that there will not be the near-complete lockdowns of businesses and economies that were seen in the spring, even if the Covid situation gets worse, which many expect it will as winter approaches in the northern hemisphere.
The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index lower again. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $40.80 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is 0.78% today.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, and new residential construction.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 3,496.50 and then at 3,524.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at the overnight low of 3,428.25 and then at Monday’s low of 3,410.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 11,950.50 and then at 12,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 11,667.00 and then at Monday’s low of 11,591.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading again. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 174 14/32 and then at Monday’s high of 174 27/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 173 30/32 and then at the October low of 173 10/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the October low of 138.20.5 and then at 138.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the October low of 138.20.5 and then at 138.18.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the October high of 1.1847 and then at 1.1900. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1773 and then at Monday’s low of 1.1717. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
November Nymex crude oil prices are a bit higher in early U.S. trading. Price action has turned choppy and sideways. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $41.29 and then at the October high of $41.47. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $40.48 and then at $40.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
US grain futures are higher again in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain market bulls remain in solid technical control. Bullish speculators continue to enter the grain futures markets as the charts are fully bullish. There are no early clues to suggest that market tops are close at hand.