Friday, October 7–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to mixed openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are still leaning toward risk-off attitudes to end the trading week. Worries about global inflation and economic recession and the Russia-Ukraine war continue to curb risk appetite.
Traders and investors are awaiting what is arguably the most important U.S. data point of the week, if not the month: Friday morning’s employment situation report for September from the Labor Department. The key non-farm jobs number is expected to come in at up 275,000. The August report showed a non-farm jobs rise of 315,000.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $89.50 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.85%.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes monthly wholesale trade data and consumer credit. A couple of Federal Reserve officials are also scheduled to speak today.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage amid a six-week-old price downtrend still in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in this week’s high of 3,820.00 and then at 3,850.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,725.00 and then at 3,686.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices remain in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 11,729.75 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 11,366.50 and then at 11,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears have the firm advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 127 9/32 and then at 128 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 125 28/32 even and then at 125 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears have the firm technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of 112.22.5 and then at 113.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 111.16.0 and then at 111.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a downtrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0000 and then at this week’s high of 1.0054. Shorter-term support is seen at .9800 and then at .9750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
November Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have momentum. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $90.00 and then at $91.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Thursday’s low of $87.04 and then at Wednesday’s low of $85.42. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were firmer overnight. Risk aversion in the general marketplace this week has been bearish for the grains. Corn and wheat bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Soybean and meal futures bears have the chart edge. Grains will continue to look to the outside markets for direction. U.S. corn and soybean harvest pressure and commercial hedging will likely limit the upside in the grains in the near term.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff