Thursday, March 23–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. While the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting produced a mostly expected quarter-point rate hike, Fed Chair Powell at his press conference leaned a bit more dovish than he had been in recent months. That briefly rallied the U.S. stock indexes. However, what rattled the U.S. stock market late in the session Wednesday was comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen at a Senate hearing that the federal government has no plans to protect all bank deposits that are not FDIC-insured.
In overnight news, the Swiss National Bank raised its main interest rate by 50 basis points. The central bank also said the Swiss banking crisis is over. The Bank of England is holding its regular monetary policy meeting Thursday.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly up following sharp losses Wednesday. Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower and are trading around $70.00 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.472%.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Chicago Fed national activity index, new residential sales and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,073.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,950.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,897.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading after hitting a 6.5-month high Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 13,082.00 and then at 13,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 12,678.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,525.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 131 28/32 and then at 133 even. Shorter-term support lies at 130 even and then at this week’s low of 129 8/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 115.19.5 and then at 116.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 115.00.0 and then at 114.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are slightly lower after hitting a seven-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0983 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 1.0814 and then at 1.0761. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neural early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $71.31 and then at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the Wednesday’s low of $68.89 and then at $66.90. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mostly higher overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Elevated risk aversion in the general marketplace has been and likely will continue limiting speculative buying interest in grains. Soybean market bears have the overall near-term technical advantage, as soybean meal futures are breaking down. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall near-term chart advantage. The path of least resistance for grain futures markets prices at present is sideways to lower.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff