Wednesday, December 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly up overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings and more record highs when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite remains elevated as market participants are opting to look just over the horizon to see what will likely be strong economic recoveries under way as soon as late spring, and choosing to look beyond the Covid-19 pandemic that appears to be at its peak for infections and deaths in the U.S. and which has forced new business and public restrictions that are still hamstringing economic growth. Colorado has reported the first official U.S. case of the new strain of faster-spreading Covid that has hit the U.K.
Trading volumes are likely to start to die down at mid-week, ahead of the New Year’s Day holiday on Friday, when governments and markets are closed.
The U.S. dollar index is lower and overnight came within a hair of the recent 2.5-year low in early U.S. trading. The other important outside market sees February Nymex crude oil futures prices higher and trading around $48.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently around 0.95%.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, advance economic indicators, pending home sales, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher and near the record high in early U.S. trading. A near-term price uptrend has been restarted on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 3,747.75 and then at 3,775.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 3,700.00 and then at this week’s low of 3,676.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher and near the another record high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the record high of 12,918.25 and then at 13,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,808.25 and then at this week’s low of 12,655.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 172 30/32 and then at 173 14/32. Shorter-term support lies at 172 even and then at last week’s low of 171 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 137.31.5 and then at 138.03.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 137.20.0 and then at 137.15.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are higher and hit a two-year high early today. Bulls are in solid technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2315 and then at the December high of 1.2350. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2271 and then at 1.2233. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
February Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $48.96 and then at the December high of $49.43. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $47.50 and then at $47.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
US grain futures are lower in early U.S. pre-market trading, on normal, profit-taking corrective pullbacks after solid price gains Monday that saw corn and soybeans hit contract highs. The grain markets bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place on the daily charts. The supply and demand fundamentals in the grains continue to favor the bulls, especially a huge appetite from China. Dry weather in South American growing regions is also bullish for corn and soybeans. The corn and soybean markets are still over-extended on a short-term technical basis and are due for more corrective pullbacks in their uptrends.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff