Wednesday, March 1–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Risk appetite is not keen to start the new trading month, but neither is risk aversion. An underlying current in the marketplace recently has been notions China’s economic growth will surge this year. A Wall Street Journal article this morning has the headline: “China’s economy seen emerging from zero-Covid shadow.” However, the deteriorating political relations between the U.S. and China have pushed the world’s two largest economies very close to a cold war that could at least partially offset the benefits to the global marketplace of a stronger China economy.
The key outside markets this morning see the U.S. dollar index solidly lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower and trading around $76.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.92%.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), the global manufacturing PMI, the ISM report on business manufacturing, construction spending, domestic auto industry sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,070.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 3,984.75 and then at 3,950.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,394.75 and then at 12,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,124.00 and then at last week’s low of 12,058.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices Tuesday hit a three-month low. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 125 20/32 and then at 126 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 124 9/32 and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 111.25.5 and then at 112.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 111.04.5 and then at 111.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are solidly up in early U.S. trading. Prices are still in a downtrend on the daily bar chart, but just barely. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0750 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0634 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
April Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $77.83 and then at $79.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were firmer overnight mild corrective rebounds from this week’s selling pressure. Soybean market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading now. Corn and wheat bears have the overall chart advantage and have momentum on their side, to suggest more selling pressure in those markets in the near term.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff