Tuesday, April 23–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Asian and European stock indexes were mixed to mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. With no major geopolitical hotspots in play at present, focus of traders and investors is on corporate earnings reports.
Rising oil prices that saw Nymex crude push above $66.00 a barrel and to a six-month high overnight, with Brent crude above $70.00, are getting more attention in the marketplace. More gains in crude oil would likely prompt some keener concerns about problematic inflation, as well as economic growth concerns. Oil’s surge this week is mainly due to the U.S. not renewing waivers it had given to some countries on sanctioned Iranian crude oil imports.
The other key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index slightly up and not far below the high for the year set last Thursday.
U.S. economic reports due for release Tuesday include the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, the monthly house price index, new residential sales, and the Richmond Fed business survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading today. Bulls still have the firm near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s six-month high of 2,923.50 and then at 2,940.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at last week’s low of 2,889.50 and then at 2,877.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading but did poke to a six-month high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the October high of 7,767.00 and then at 7,800.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 7,700.00 and then at Monday’s low of 7,669.75. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded recently and a downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 146 27/32 and then at last week’s high of 147 5/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 145 31/32 and then at 145 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded recently as a price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 123.07.5 and then at 123.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 122.27.0 and then at the April low of 122.20.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is slightly up early today. Prices last week set a new high for the year. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the March high of 97.160 and then at last week’s high of 97.290. Shorter-term support is seen at Monday’s low of 96.920 and then at 96.620. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
June Nymex crude oil prices are higher and hit a six-month high in early U.S. trading today. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage and are keeping a gentle uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $66.19 and then at $67.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $65.50 and then at $65.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures were mostly weaker overnight and are at or near their lows for this year. Grain market bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. There are no early clues that market bottoms are close at hand. Focus is on U.S. Corn Belt weather. Most of this week looks better for field work, too, including some early planting of corn.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff