Tuesday, November 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open higher when the New York day session begins. U.S. stock indexes are at record highs. Focus for investors and traders this week includes a U.S. tax-cut plan being pushed through Congress, with its eventual passage still uncertain. The OPEC oil cartel also meets on Thursday. Fed Chairman nominee Jerome Powell also testifies Tuesday afternoon at his confirmation hearing in front of the Senate Banking Committee.
In overnight news, the Paris-based OECD think tank said global economic growth in 2017 will be the best in seven years. The OECD said world economic growth in 2018 will also be good.
The U.S. dollar index is firmer today on a technical bounce from recent selling pressure. The dollar index bears still have the near-term technical advantage, which means the likely path for the greenback will remain sideways to lower.
Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are weaker on a corrective pullback after hitting a two-year high last Friday. Oil bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, stiff chart resistance layers lie just above the market.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the advance economic indicators report, the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, the monthly house price index, the consumer confidence index, and the Richmond Fed business survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices Monday hit another contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,615.00 and then at 2,625.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the Monday’s low of 2,597.75 and then at 2,590.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
March Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices Monday hit another contract and record high. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 6,450.00 and then at 6,475.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 6,415.00 and then at 6,400.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 153 14/32 and then at the November high of 153 21/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 152 27/32 and then at 152 14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 124.29.5 and then at 125.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 124.25.0 and then at 124.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is firmer on short covering after hitting a two-month low on Monday. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bearish as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 92.720 and then at 93.000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 92.470 and then at Monday’s low of 92.130. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
January Nymex crude oil prices are weaker on a corrective pullback after hitting a more-than-two-year high last Friday. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $58.00 and then at 58.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $57.00 and then at $56.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures markets were mixed overnight. Corn bulls are fading again. Soybean bulls still have some momentum. Wheat remains fully bearish on the charts.