Thursday, August 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading and the U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Focus Thursday is on the weekly U.S. jobless claims report, which is expected to show new claims at 1.1 million in the latest week. Traders and investors will scrutinize the jobs data to try to gauge the pace of the U.S. economic recovery, or lack thereof. Also somewhat downbeat for the marketplace today are reports the U.S. Democrats and Republicans in Congress are still far apart on any new stimulus package for Americans. And Boston Federal Reserve President Eric Rosengren warned Thursday that Americans not adhering to guidelines issued by health officials will prolong the U.S. economic downturn.
Gold and silver prices are still a bit wobbly after Tuesday’s huge losses. However, prices are presently well up from this week’s lows, which are key price support levels that bulls must defend to keep the gold and silver near-term price uptrends in place.
The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices near steady and trading around $42.65 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is lower. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 0.66%.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report and import and export prices.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading but still close to the record high scored in February. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a 4.5-month-old price uptrend in place. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,382.50 and then at the record high of 3,396.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at this week’s low of 3,319.50 and then at 3,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls remain in solid overall technical control. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 11,185.75 and then at last week’s record high of 11,283.25. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 10,845.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term chart advantage but have faded badly this week to suggest a near-term market top is in place. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 179 20/32 and then at 179 31/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 178 8/32 and then at 178 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage but have faded this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 139.16.0 and then at 139.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 139.00.0 and then at 138.26.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the August high of 1.1926 and then at 1.1950. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1791 and then at 1.1750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
September Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $42.94 and then at the August high of $43.52. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $41.53 and then at this week’s low of $41.17. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
US grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Importantly, the grain futures markets on Thursday absorbed bearish USDA monthly supply and demand data and still traded mostly higher. Such suggests all the bearish news in the grain markets may now be factored into prices. Such does not suggest price uptrends are imminent but it does suggest there is very limited downside price potential at current levels. It could also be that many traders are viewing the grains as value-buying opportunities at lower levels.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff