Wednesday, December 22–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. It’s been a choppy trading week so far and the U.S. stock indexes appear to be pausing at mid-week. There is less risk aversion in the market place, at least for now. There is a bigger slate of U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday that could impact markets. However, trading activity in many markets is likely to wane as the trading session progresses today, ahead of the Christmas holiday. Markets are closed on Friday.
President Biden on Tuesday afternoon said he and Sen. Joe Manchin will work on getting a U.S. spending bill complete, after Manchin nixed the latest White House proposal. That has helped to assuage the marketplace.
The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil prices slightly higher and trading around $71.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker early today. Meantime, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.474%.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the Chicago Fed national activity index, the third estimate of third-quarter GDP, existing home sales, the consumer confidence index, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,668.00 and then at 4,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 4,600.00 and then at Tuesday’s low of 4,565.75. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 16,000.00 and then at 16,100.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 15,881.00 and then at 15,750.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 161 15/32 and then at 162 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 160 14/32 and then at 160 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 130.28.5 and then at 131.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 130.16.0 and then at 130.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are up in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been trading sideways at lower levels for nearly four weeks. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1350 and then at the December high of 1.1388. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the December low of 1.1247 and then at the November low of 1.1221. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $72.50 and then at the December high of $73.13. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $70.00 and then at $69.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were firmer in overnight trading, after solid gains Tuesday. Bulls are gaining momentum. The grain market bulls now have strength and prices may trend sideways to higher into the new year, and maybe longer.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff