Tuesday, December 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight in quieter, post-holiday trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.
There were no major news developments overnight or over the long holiday weekend to move the markets significantly.
The key outside markets on Monday morning find the U.S. dollar index and Nymex crude oil prices hovering near steady levels.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the S&P/Case-Shiller home price index, the Richmond Fed business survey, and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower but not far below last week’s contract and record high. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. There are still no strong, early chart clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 2,698.00 and then at 2,715.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at last week’s low of 2,679.00 and then at 2,665.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
March Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on profit taking from last week’s contract and record high. The bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 6,492.00 and then at 6,520.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at last week’s low of 6,463.25 and then at 6,446.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. After last week’s big down-move bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 151 7/32 and then at 151 28/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 150 14/32 and then at 150 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a contract low last week. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 123.16.0 and then at 123.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s contract low of 123.12.5 and then at 123.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is near steady in early U.S. trading. Trading has turned choppy and sideways. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bearish as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral to bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at last Friday’s high of 93.075 and then at 93.310. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 92.750 and then at 92.500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Prices are not far below the 2017 highs. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, stiff resistance lies just above the market. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the November high of $58.99 and then at 59.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $57.87 and then at last week’s low of $56.88. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
There was no grain futures trading overnight, due to the Christmas holiday Monday. Grain market bears remain in technical control. However, the bullish weekly high close in corn last Friday suggests a market bottom is in place. Look for continued low daily price volatility for the grain futures in the near term.