Friday, March 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed to mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward near steady openings when the New York day session begins.
In overnight news, the Euro zone reported its consumer inflation rate in February was up 1.1%, year-on-year. That was slightly below expectations of a 1.2% rise. This is another report showing non-problematic inflation in the European Union. In fact, the European Central Bank would like to see an annual inflation rate of around 2.0%.
The key “outside markets” on Friday morning see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Trading in the USDX has been choppy and sideways recently. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes new residential construction, industrial production and capacity utilization, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,779.50 and then at this week’s high of 2,802.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at this week’s low of 2,741.00 and then at 2,725.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
March Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 7,098.00 and then at Tuesday’s record high of 7,188.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 7,000.00 and then at 6,950.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher and hit a five-week high in early U.S. trading. While bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, the bulls have momentum amid a fledgling price uptrend. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 145 16/32 and then at 146 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 144 25/32 and then at 144 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the bulls are having a good week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 120.23.0 and then at 120.28.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 120.14.0 and then at 120.07.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early U.S. trading today. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 89.725 and then at last week’s high of 89.930. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 89.095 and then at last week’s low of 88.915. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
April Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Trading has been choppy recently. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $62.00 and then at this week’s high of $62.33. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $61.00 and then at $60.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures were mixed overnight. Grain market bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid near-term price uptrends.