Monday, April 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Asian and European stock indexes were steady to mixed in quieter dealings overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. There are presently no major geopolitical issues in the world marketplace to rattle the markets and trader and investor attitudes remains generally upbeat, as evidenced by most world stock markets trending sideways to higher at present.
Focus of traders and investors this week will be on U.S. corporate earnings reports. Big bank reports issued last Friday were surprisingly upbeat.
U.S.-China trade talks will continue this week, with most market watchers thinking good progress has been made on the matter and both sides are close to a final agreement.
The key outside markets today find the U.S. dollar index weaker. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $63.25 a barrel.
U.S. economic reports due for release Monday include the Empire State manufacturing survey, and Treasury international capital data.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading today and close to Friday’s six-month high. Bulls have the firm near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,925.00 and then at 2,940.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Friday’s low of 2,890.75 and then at last week’s low of 2,877.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading and close to last week’s six-month high. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 7,665.00 and then at 7,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 7,600.00 and then at last week’s low of 7,561.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady lower and hit a three-week low early today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 147 even and then at 147 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 146 22/32 and then at 146 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady and hit a three-week low in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading but still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 123.08.5 and then at 123.12.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 123.00.0 and then at 122.28.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is weaker today. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 96.580 and then at 96.860. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 96.365 and then at 96.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading today, on profit taking. Bulls still have the firm near-term technical advantage and are keeping a gentle uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $63.84 and then at last week’s high of $64.79. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $63.00 and then at $62.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Grain futures were mixed overnight. Grain market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Focus is turning to U.S. Corn Belt weather, which has been cold and wet recent weeks, with more precip forecast for this week, which is going to cause field work and possibly corn-planting delays.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff