Wednesday, November 16–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed for mixed openings when the New York day session begins. After a tense Tuesday afternoon in the markets following reports that a Russian missile landed in NATO-member Poland and killed two people, the marketplace has mostly settled down after the U.S. said the missile was not likely fired by Russia but instead was likely fired by Ukraine in an attempt to shoot down a barrage of incoming Russian missiles.
Traders and investors remain cheered by Tuesday’s U.S. producer price index report that came in cooler than expected and drove the major U.S. stock indexes to new for-the-move highs. Loosening of Covid restrictions in China and moves by the Chinese central bank to stimulate the world’s second-largest economy are also keeping an upbeat tone in the marketplace at mid-week.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are a bit firmer and trading around $87.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.79%.
It’s a busy day for U.S. economic data Wednesday, including the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, retail sales, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, the NAHB housing market index, manufacturing and trade inventories, Treasury international capital data and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and not far below the two-month high recorded Tuesday. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,050.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,960.00 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading but close to Tuesday’s seven-week high. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,000.00 and then at this week’s high of 12,118.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,702.00 and then at 11,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 126 even and then at 127 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 122 28/32 and then at 122 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 112.31.5 and then at 113.10.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 112.10.0 and then at this week’s low of 111.27.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0508 and then at 1.0550. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0356 and then at this week’s low of 1.0297. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field amid choppy trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of $88.68 and then at $90.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $85.00 and then at this week’s low of $84.06. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were lower in overnight trading. Grains got a boost in late trading Tuesday on the news a Russian missile hit Poland. However, the missile was likely fired by Ukraine and the grains have pulled back early today. Corn bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Soybeans bulls have the slight chart edge. Wheat bears have the firm near-term technical advantage.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff