Friday, September 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins. The markets have brushed aside, for now, the hawkish tone of the U.S. Federal Reserve that was reinforced by comments from Chairman Powell on Thursday. Also, the European Central Bank on Thursday raise its main interest rate by 0.75%–the largest in over 20 years. It’s very likely traders and investors have already factored into markets’ prices the tighter monetary policies of most of the major central banks of the world.
Somewhat overshadowing the marketplace and crowding out other business/financial news is the death of Queen Elizabeth on Thursday.
The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $85.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is sharply lower on a big corrective pullback after hitting a 20-year high Wednesday. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.260%.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes monthly wholesale trade.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and poised for a technically bullish weekly high close Friday. A downtrend on the daily bar chart is now in jeopardy. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in 4,1000.00 and then at 4,150.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,000.00 and then at Thursday’s low of 3,959.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading and poised for a technically bullish weekly high close. A downtrend on the daily bar chart is now in jeopardy. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,700.00 and then at 12,850.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,405.00 and then at Thursday’s low of 12,191.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the firm advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 134 30/32 and then at 136 even. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 132 22/32 and the at this week’s low of 132 2/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart and bears have the firm technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 116.27.5 and then at 117.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 115.22.0 and then at this week’s low of 115.13.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are solidly higher and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0180 and then at 1.0250. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0065 and then at 1.0000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading on short covering after hitting an eight-month low Thursday. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $86.00 and then at $87.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $82.71 and then at this week’s low of $81.20. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were higher overnight. The corn market is trending up and the bulls have the chart advantage. Soybean prices are chopping sideways and bulls and bears are on a level technical playing field. Soybeans are being supported by a bullish soybean meal market. Wheat markets have seen bullish upside breakouts from the recent sideways trading ranges at lower levels and the bulls have gained upside momentum this week.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff