Monday, April 15–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Still, Israel has vowed to retaliate for the more-than 300 missiles and drones fired into Israel by Iran and its proxies. The attack included 185 explosive drones, 36 cruise missiles and 110 ballistic missiles, “in a salvo that could have killed thousands and destroyed most of Israel’s infrastructure,” said broker SP Angel in a morning email dispatch. “Iran has been threatening to annihilate Israel for many years and it is only a matter of time before Iran develops its nuclear arsenal. The hard-line Netanyahu government will, almost inevitably, hit back at Iran in an attempt to slow its nuclear program, change its regime and reduce the capacity of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Members of the Israel cabinet are reported to be pushing for a powerful retaliatory strike as a deterrence, though the U.S. has stated it will not help Israel retaliate against Iran. We suspect the retaliatory attack will come sooner rather than later,” said the broker.
The Associated Press said in a morning email: “Iran may have managed to strike a balance between retaliating publicly and avoiding provoking further Israeli military action and setting off a much wider conflict. Mona Yacoubian, vice president of the Middle East and North Africa center at the U.S. Institute of Peace said of the situation: ‘Both (Iran and Israel) are able at this point to claim victory and step down off the precipice, particularly since there were no Israeli civilians killed.’ ” The marketplace will remain extra nervous in the coming days.
In other news, China kept its monetary policy unchanged at its PBOC central bank meeting.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the Empire State manufacturing survey, retail sales, the NAHB housing market index, and manufacturing and trade inventories.
STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Friday’s high of 5,248.75 and then at last week’s high of 5,285.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 5,150.00 and then at 5,125.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. A five-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 18,518.75 and then at the contract high of 18,709.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 18,150.00 and then at last week’s low of 18,053.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 116 1/32 and then at 117 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 114 29/32 and then at 114 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 108.22.0 and then at 109.00.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at last week’s low of 107.27.5 and then at 107.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are firmer on short covering after hitting a 5.5-month low Friday. Bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Friday’s high of 1.0758 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0667 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $87.67 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $84.33 and then at $83.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were weaker overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report and the weekly USDA crop progress reports. Charts remain overall bearish for corn, wheat, soybeans, meal and bean oil. However, wheat and corn markets look like they have put in market bottoms. And if they have done so, so likely have soybeans, meal and bean oil.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff