Wednesday, July 26–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European stock markets were mostly lower in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, new residential sales and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading but not far below last week’s 15-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of 4,609.25 and then at 4,650.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,560.00 and then at last week’s low of 4,528.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 15,739.25 and then at 15,850.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,483.75 and then at 15,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 126 6/32 and then at 127 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 125 10/32 and then at 125 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 111.29.0 and then at this week’s high of 112.17.5. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 111.17.5 and then at 111.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1177 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1051 and then at 1.1000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
September Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a three-month high Tuesday. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $79.90 and then at the April high of $81.44. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of $78.29 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mostly lower in overnight trading on more profit taking and downside corrections from recent strong gains. Weather in the Midwest leans bullish: very hot with little to no precipitation this week. Meantime, the Russia-Ukraine war has escalated to include more attacks on Ukraine grain facilities. Technicals are bullish for soybeans for corn and wheat futures. Look for higher volatility in the grain in the near term.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff