Friday, April 13–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins. This week has seen a marked improvement in trader and investor risk appetite, despite rising tensions between the U.S., Russia and Syria. The perceived improving prospects for a negotiated trade agreement between the U.S. and China—the world’s two largest economies—have put the marketplace more at ease.
The key “outside markets” on Friday morning see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading above $67.00 a barrel. Crude oil prices hit a 3.5-year high overnight.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday is light and includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The recent “collapse in volatility” in the e-mini S&P index makes me suspect a bigger daily price move is coming soon. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 2,675.00 and then at 2,700.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at the overnight low of 2,652.00 and then at Thursday’s low of 2,639.75. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 6,693.75 and then at 6,725.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 6,645.50 and then at 6,600.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 145 23/32 and then at 146 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 145 3/32 and then at 144 25/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.20.0 and then at 120.26.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 120.13.0 and then at 120.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 89.675 and then at 90.000. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 89.020 and then at the March low of 88.530. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and hit a 3.5-year high overnight. Bulls have good upside momentum, to suggest more gains in the near term. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $67.76 and then at $68.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $66.80 and then at $66.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures were mixed overnight. Cold weather in the U.S. midwest is bullish for the grains, as it is likely to prompt planting delays for corn and possibly soybeans, and it’s also hurt the wheat crop.