Friday, October 13–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
In other overnight news, China got some more downbeat economic data Friday. China’s September exports were down 6.2%, year-on-year, while its imports were also down 6.2%. China’s consumer price index in September was unchanged, year-on-year and compares with a rise of 0.2% in the August report.
Meantime, reports said the U.S. is cracking down on oil tankers smuggling Russian oil and selling it above the West’s sanctioned price. If the crackdown on sanction-rule-breaking oil tankers continues, that would reduce the supply of crude oil on the world market.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil prices are sharply higher and trading around $86.25 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.621%.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes import and export prices and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,400.00 and then at this week’s high of 4,430.50. Support for active traders is seen at 4,350.00 and then at this week’s low of 4,299.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 15,345.00 and then at this week’s high of 15,468.75. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,100.00 and then at 15,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading on short covering. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 114 10/32 and then at 115 even. Shorter-term support lies at 112 even and then at this week’s low of 110 11/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 108.16.0 and then at 108.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 107.09.0 and then at this week’s low of 107.02.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears are in firm overall near-term technical control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0600 and then at this week’s high of 1.0668. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0500 and then at the October low of 1.0482. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
November Nymex crude oil prices are sharply higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are still bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $87.24 and then at $88.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $84.00 and then at this week’s low of $82.31. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were higher in overnight trading. Corn and soybeans got friendly USDA report data on Thursday. All the markets are seeing short covering today. Still, keener risk aversion in the marketplace will likely limit the upside for the grains. Harvesting of soybeans and corn is in full swing and that is also a bearish seasonal factor amid commercial hedge selling. Technicals are still overall bearish for corn, wheat and soybeans. Due out today is the weekly USDA export sales report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff