Friday, November 27–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly flat overnight, amid no major news developments the past 48 hours. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins. Following the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, Friday is usually one of the slowest U.S. trading days of the year. The NYSE and Nasdaq stock markets close early today.
The U.S. dollar index is near steady early today. The other important outside market sees January Nymex crude oil futures prices weaker and trading around $45.40 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading at 0.86%.
There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are modestly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and prices are just below the recent high set earlier this month. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,655.00 and then at the contract high of 3,668.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 3,600.00 and then at 3,575.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are modestly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage, but stiff resistance layers lie just above the market. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 12,223.50 and then at the October high of 12,249.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,127.00 and then at 12,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 173 25/32 and then at last week’s high of 174 9/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 172 27/32 and then at this week’s low of 172 17/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 138.17.5 and then at last week’s high of 138.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 138.04.0 and then at 138.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and hit a three-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1972 and then at 1.2000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1919 and then at 1.1872. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
January Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower on some mild profit taking after hitting an eight-month high Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $46.26 and then at $47.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $44.55 and then at $44.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
US grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading. The grain market bulls still have the firm near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends in place in all three markets. There are no strong, early clues to suggest that market tops are close at hand. Weekly USDA export sales data will be out on Friday morning.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff