Wednesday, July 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes
are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day
session begins.
Gold prices are firmer in pre-U.S.-session trading. Bulls
are trying to keep prices from falling below the technically
important $1,200.00 level.
Focus of the marketplace today is on Fed Chair Janet
Yellen’s testimony on U.S. monetary policy before a U.S.
House of Representatives committee. As usual, markets and
Fed watchers will try to glean from her remarks clues on the
timing and nature of the next monetary policy action from
the U.S. central bank. Many believe the Fed will continue on
a path of gradually tightening monetary policy.
In overnight news, the Euro zone’s May industrial output was
reported at a five-year high, at up 1.3% from April and up
4.0% from the same time last year.
The key “outside markets” on Wednesday morning see Nymex
crude oil futures firmer and trading just below $46.00 a
barrel. Traders are expecting a bullish weekly U.S. storage
report out later today. Reports today said Saudi Arabia in
June produced more crude oil than its agreed-upon level to
comply with an OPEC agreement. The oil market bears are in
firm near-term technical control. Meantime, the U.S. dollar
index is slightly higher early today. The greenback bears
have the firm near-term technical advantage amid a price
downtrend.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the
weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the weekly DOE
liquid energy stocks report and the Federal Reserve’s beige
book.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 September e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher
in early U.S. trading. The bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage, but trading has been sideways
at higher levels for the past month. The index appears to be
“rolling over” from its price uptrend. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s
high of 2,436.50 and then at 2,445.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at this week’s low of 2,410.25 and
then at 2,402.25. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
Nasdaq index September futures: Prices are firmer in early
U.S. trading today. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at
5,750.00 and then at 5,775.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at the overnight low of 5,712.25 and then at 5,675.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early
U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
seen at the overnight high of 152 12/32 and then at 153
even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 151 31/32
and then at last week’s low of 151 18/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S.
trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high
of 125.13.0 and then at 125.16.0. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 124.04.5 and then at 125.00.0.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early
U.S. trading. Bears still have the firm overall near-term
technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for
the dollar index are bearish early today as the 4-day is
below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are
neutral to bullish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at 96.000 and then at last
week’s high of 96.255. Shorter-term support is seen at the
June low of 95.225 and then at 95.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day
Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
August Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S.
trading. The oil bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Look for buy stops to reside just above
technical resistance at $46.50 and then at $47.00. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at $45.00 and then
at $44.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Grain futures markets were lower overnight, on more
corrective pullbacks from recent solid gains. Weather in the
U.S. Corn Belt is still paramount. Hot and generally dry
near-term weather forecasts for Corn Belt remain in place. A
monthly USDA supply and demand report is due out later this
morning. Look for continued volatile price action in the
grains in the near term.