Tuesday, September 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set to open the New York day session slightly lower. Risk appetite is a bit more upbeat early this week. The first U.S. presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden takes place in Cleveland, Ohio Tuesday night. Most agree the debates will change very few voters’ minds. Still, the marketplace remains a bit skittish ahead of the debate, which is likely to produce some fireworks.
The important outside markets early today see the U.S. dollar index down again on a corrective pullback after hitting a two-month high late last week. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $40.40. Meantime, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.65% today.
The U.S. economic data point highlight of the week will be Friday morning’s monthly jobless report for September from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is forecast at up 875,000 and the unemployment rate is forecast at 8.2%.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook reports, the weekly chain store sales index, the S&P-Core Logic home indexes, and the consumer confidence index. Several Federal Reserve officials also speak today.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have stabilized prices early this week. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 3,363.00 and then at 3,385.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at 3,325.00 and then at 3,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,500.00 and then at 11,600.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,300.00 and then at 11,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls were working on a near-term price uptrend. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 177 9/32 and then at 177 14/32. Shorter-term support lies at Monday’s low of 176 19/32 and then at 176 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 139.23.5 and then at the September high of 139.29.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 139.16.5 and then at last week’s low of 139.12.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are a bit higher in early U.S. trading, on more short covering. Prices are trending lower on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1716 and then at 1.1750. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.1630 and then at 1.1600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
November Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of $40.80 and then at $41.72. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Monday’s low of $39.78 and then at $39.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
US grain futures are weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls have faded a bit recently but still have the overall near-term technical advantage in all three markets. Focus is on U.S. harvest results, which are coming in better than expected so far, and export demand, as many wonder how long China will continue its buying binge, as seen in the daily USDA export sales announcements. New speculators coming into the long side of the grain futures markets are helping to keep price uptrends alive in all three grains.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff