Thursday, March 9–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The general marketplace is quieter Thursday, ahead of the February U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department on Friday morning. The key non-farm payrolls component of the report is expected to show a rise of 225,000 jobs, following a mammoth rise of 517,000 in the January report. Look for higher volatility in many markets is the non-farm jobs print misses expectations.
In overnight news, China’s inflation eased as its February consumer price index rose just 1.0%, year-on-year, compared to a consensus forecast of up 1.7%. Those numbers are way below recent inflation numbers reported by the European Union, the U.S. and other major industrialized countries.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly up and trading around $76.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.987%.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report and the Challenger job-cuts report. President Biden also releases his fiscal year 2024 budget today.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,050.00 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at 4,000.00 and then at last week’s low of 3,960.75. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 12,500.00 and then at this week’s high of 12,623.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 12,247.75 and then at 12,000.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 126 even and then at this week’s high of 126 13/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 124 16/32 and then at 124 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 111.17.0 and then at 111.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 110.20.5 and then at 110.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0700 and then at this week’s high of 1.0758. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0590 and then at 1.0550. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
April Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid choppy and sideways trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $78.00 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $76.11 and then at $75.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were higher overnight. Soybean market bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Corn and wheat bears have the firm overall chart advantage. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff