Thursday, March 8–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed to higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins.
Markets were somewhat assuaged overnight on reports the U.S. government could implement so-called “carve-outs” for certain countries (namely Canada and Mexico) when it imposes tariffs on steel and aluminum, as early as this weekend. Now it appears the U.S. has its sights set on what many believe to be the main problem in world trade: China.
The main event of the trading day Thursday will be the European Central Bank’s regular monetary policy meeting. No change in interest rates is expected from the ECB, but ECB President Mario Draghi’s press conference could offer clues on the future path and timing of ECB monetary policy.
The Bank of Japan holds its monetary policy meeting on Friday.
The key outside markets on Thursday morning see the U.S. dollar index higher. Still, the USDX bears have the firm near-term technical advantage. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading just above $61.00 a barrel. Crude oil has the bearish weight of rising U.S. crude oil stocks and record U.S. oil production levels, as reported by the U.S. Department of Energy on Wednesday.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, and monthly chain store sales.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 2,734.50 and then at 2,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 2,700.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of 2,681.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
March Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 7,000.00 and then at the contract high of 7,047.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 6,913.50 and then at 6,900.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 143 16/32 and then at 144 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 142 21/32 and then at 142 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 120.05.0 and then at 120.10.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 119.26.5 and then at 119.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S. trading today. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 89.765 and then at 90.000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 89.125 and then at this week’s low of 88.915. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
April Nymex crude oil prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. Trading has turned choppy this week. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $62.00 and then at this week’s high of $63.28. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $60.58 and then at $60.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures were weaker again overnight on more profit taking after recent gains. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends. The big news this week will be today’s monthly USDA supply and demand report.