Monday, November 7–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed for higher openings when the New York day session begins. It will be another busy week of corporate earnings reports.
The U.S. mid-term elections on Tuesday will be a focus for the marketplace this week.
In overnight news, China’s exports in October fell 0.3%, year-on-year, the worst performance since May of 2020. China’s imports were down 0.7% in the same period. Over the weekend Chinese health officials said the are sticking with their “zero-Covid” policies despite widespread rumors to the contrary.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $92.50 a barrel. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note is yielding 4.144%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes the employment trends index and consumer credit.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 3,850.00 and then at 3,900.00. Support for active traders is seen at last week’s low of 3,704.25 and then at 3,641.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,000.00 and then at 11,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 10,751.00 and then at last week’s low of 10,636.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears have the solid overall technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 120 even and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 118 22/32 and then at 118 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices are in a three-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bears have the solid overall technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 110.12.0 and then at 110.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 109.10.5 and then at 109.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0037 and then at 1.0100. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of .9948 and then at .9900. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
December Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Prices hit a nine-week high on Friday. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at last week’s high of $92.87 and then at $94.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $90.50 and then at Friday’s low of $87.82. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were weaker in overnight trading. Corn bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Soybeans bulls also have the slight chart edge. Wheat bears have the near-term technical advantage. Seasonality studies are starting to favor the grain market bulls as the U.S. corn and soybean harvests wind down. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff