Tuesday, December 5–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to mixed to weaker openings when the New York day session begins.
In overnight news, Australia’s central bank kept its monetary policy unchanged at its regular monetary policy meeting.
The key “outside markets” Tuesday morning see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Nymex crude oil futures prices are also weaker early today.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, the international trade in goods and services report, the U.S. services PMI, the global services PMI, the IDB/TIPP economic optimism index, and the ISM non-manufacturing survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading, on mild profit-taking after hitting another contract and record high on Monday. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. There are no strong, early chart clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,650.00 and then at Monday’s contract high of 2,667.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 2,625.00 and then at 2,606.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
March Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, the recent higher volatility at higher price levels is a warning signal of a topping process. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 6,297.00 and then at 6,325.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 6,250.00 and then at 6,225.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Trading has been choppy recently. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 153 6/32 and then at 153 10/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 152 23/32 and then at 152 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading, on short covering. Bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 124.12.0 and then at 124.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 124.04.0 and then at 124.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 93.130 and then at 93.500. Shorter-term support is seen at 92.50 and then at 92.265. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
January Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $57.64 and then at 58.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $56.75 and then at $56.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures markets were narrowly mixed overnight. Corn and wheat markets remain bearish. Soybean bulls still have some momentum. Recent rallies in world stock markets have given the grain market bulls some strength, on notions of better world demand for grains.