Friday, April 26–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Asian and European stock indexes were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.
Traders and investors are awaiting the U.S. economic highlight of the week due out today: the first estimate on first-quarter gross domestic product. U.S. GDP is expected to come in at up 2.5%, year-on-year.
There continues to be little activity on the geopolitical front to influence world markets, making for a generally calmer and quieter trading environment.
The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower after hitting a two-year high on Thursday. The strong greenback has once again sparked a bit of concern in the emerging currency markets, especially for the Turkish lira and Argentine peso. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are lower on profit taking after hitting a six-month high earlier this week, and are trading around $65.25 a barrel.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading today. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily chart and no early clues that a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 2,939.75 and then at the September high of 2,961.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Thursday’s low of 2,914.25 and then at 2,900.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a contract high Thursday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s contract high of 7,879.50 and then at 7,900.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 7,778.25 and then at 7,750.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. A downtrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 147 15/32 and then at 148 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 147 even and then at Wednesday’s low of 146 14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. A price downtrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 123.18.5 and then at 123.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 123.08.0 and then at Wednesday’s low of 123.03.5. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is slightly lower early today after hitting a two-year high Thursday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 98.055 and then at 98.250. Shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of 97.715 and then at 97.500. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
June Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading, on profit taking from recent gains. Bulls still have the firm near-term technical advantage and are keeping a gentle uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $65.18 and then at $66.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $63.85 and then at $63.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Grain futures were mixed overnight. Grain market bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. There are no early clues that market bottoms are close at hand. Focus is on U.S. Corn Belt weather, which now favors the bulls as some wet extended Corn Belt forecasts are now prompting some planting-delay concerns.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff