Monday, August 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly firmer in quieter trading overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to firmer openings when the New York day session begins, with the Dow and Nasdaq futures poking to record highs overnight. U.S. trader and investor attention to start the trading week is on Hurricane Ida that pounded the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts Sunday and overnight. The final days of the U.S. evacuations in Kabul, Afghanistan occur early this week, after last week’s terror attack that killed scores. Later this week comes the all-important U.S. jobs report on Friday morning. This week is the unofficial last week of summer for Americans, ahead of the three-day Labor Day holiday weekend.
Traders have mostly digested last week’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming annual Federal Reserve symposium. While several Federal Reserve officials gave hawkish interviews last week, Fed Chairman Jay Powell said on Friday that while the Fed could begin to reduce its monthly bond purchases this year, it will be in no hurry to raise interest rates. Powell’s remarks were not deemed as being overly hawkish on U.S. monetary policy.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower but still trending higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are lower and trading around $68.25 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.30%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday includes pending home sales and the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a contract and record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,503.50 and then at 4,525.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at 4,475.00 and then at 4,450.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and hit a contract and record high overnight. Bulls have the solid chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 15,442.25 and then at 15,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,300.00 and then at last week’s low of 15,076.50. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 163 16/32 and then at 164 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 162 24/32 and then at 162 9/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 133.16.0 and then at 133.20.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 133.06.0 and then at 133.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1834 and then at 1.1850. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1800 and then at Friday’s low of 1.1761. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and hit a three-week high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $69.64 and then at $70.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $67.67 and then at $67.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were mixed to lower overnight. Late-season rains across much of the U.S. Midwest have improved the corn and soybean crops. The grain markets may trade sideways ahead of harvest and ahead of the Sept. 10 USDA monthly supply and demand report, when new crop production estimates will be released by the agency. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff