Friday, September 15–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Global stock markets traded narrowly mixed overnight and
U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.
Gold prices are slightly lower in pre-U.S.-day-session trading.
The marketplace is so far showing a very muted reaction to the news North Korea has fired another ballistic missile over Japan. The U.N. Security Council is holding an emergency meeting today on the matter. On Thursday North Korea threatened to “sink Japan” with its nuclear missiles and also to reduce the U.S. mainland “to ashes.” The big unknown in this situation is how far will President Trump be pushed before he responds with military force.
In overnight news, the Euro zone reported its wage growth in second quarter was up 2.0%, which is the highest rate in more than two years. This report suggests inflation in the Euro zone is also on the rise.
The key outside markets on Friday morning see the U.S. dollar index lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures are trading near steady this morning.
It’s a busy day for U.S. economic data releases Friday, including the retail sales report, the Empire State manufacturing survey, industrial production and capacity utilization, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, and manufacturing and trade inventories.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower and trading just below this week’s contract and record high. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 2,496.25 and then at 2,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 2,485.00 and then at 2,475.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading today. Prices are not far below this month’s record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 6,000.00 and then at this week’s high of 6,012.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 5,948.00 and then at 5,925.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but have faded this week and need to show more power soon. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 155 15/32 and then at 156 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 154 24/32 and then at this week’s low of 154 12/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded badly this week and need to show fresh power soon. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 126.14.0 and then at the overnight high of 126.18.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 126.05.5 and then at 126.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The December U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 91.940 and then at this week’s high of 92.420. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 91.475 and then at 91.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field but the bulls have had a good week. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the August high of $50.51 and then at $52.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Thursday’s low of $49.15 and then at $48.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Grain futures markets were weaker overnight. Grain market bulls have shown impressive resilience this week, to further suggest harvest lows are in place and that prices can work at least sideways, if not sideways to higher, into the end of the year.