Wednesday, November 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were again mostly higher overnight, following the lead of record highs scored in U.S. stock indexes Tuesday. Today, U.S. stock indexes are set to open higher and at more record highs when the New York day session begins.
Somewhat surprisingly, the world marketplace is not reacting significantly to news North Korea launched another ballistic missile Tuesday—one the U.S. military said could reach anywhere in the world. The U.S. has called an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council. President Trump on Tuesday said of the latest North Korea missile launch: “We will take care of it.” Markets and traders are fickle. Don’t be surprised if markets do show bigger reactions on the next development with North Korea.
Investors and traders are awaiting the results of a U.S. tax-cut plan being pushed through Congress. The Senate is likely to vote on the tax legislation later this week. It is not a clear-cut consensus that this bill will pass the Senate.
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen speaks to Congress today on the U.S. economic outlook.
The OPEC oil cartel meets on Thursday to discuss extending its oil-production quotas.
The U.S. dollar index is near steady today. The dollar index bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage, which means the likely path for the greenback will remain sideways to lower.
Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are weaker again today. Prices this week are seeing a corrective pullback after hitting a two-year high last Friday. Oil bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, stiff chart resistance layers lie just above the market.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the second estimate of third-quarter GDP, the weekly DOE liquid energy stock report, the Federal Reserve’s beige book, and pending home sales.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 December e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and hit another contract and record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. There are no early chart clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,635.00 and then at 2,650.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at 2,615.00 and then at 2,600.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
March Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices Tuesday hit another contract and record high. The bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. There are no early chart clues that a market top is close at hand. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 6,450.00 and then at 6,475.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 6,429.50 and then at 6,415.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 153 24/32 and then at 154 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 152 27/32 and then at 152 14/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 124.27.5 and then at this week’s high of 125.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 124.19.0 and then at 124.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is near steady in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bearish as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral to bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 93.000 and then at 93.250. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 92.650 and then at of 92.470. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
January Nymex crude oil prices are weaker on a corrective pullback after hitting a more-than-two-year high last Friday. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $58.00 and then at 58.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $57.00 and then at $56.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures markets were mixed overnight. Not much new. Corn and wheat markets are fully bearish. Soybean bulls still have some momentum. Still, I do not see strong downside price potential in corn and wheat, given their already low price levels.