Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins and at or near their recent record highs.
The marketplace is still reverberating from the surprising U.S. jobs report for April, released last Friday, that showed a paltry non-farm payrolls rise of 266,000. Forecasts were for a 1 million rise and compares to a rise of 916,000 in March. It was one of the biggest misses from expectations in over 20 years. The U.S. dollar index is reeling from the report and hit a 2.5-month low overnight. The jobs report has at least temporarily thrown cold water on notions the Federal Reserve may be forced to raise interest rates much sooner than many expected and that the U.S. economy could be running in high gear by the end of the year.
Traders and investors are watching developments regarding the cyberattack on the U.S. Colonial Pipeline company that has shut the pipeline system down and halted much of the gasoline distribution on the East Coast.
The other key outside market today sees Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading around $65.25 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.595%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the employment trends index. Several Federal Reserve officials are slated to speak this week.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and hit another record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. There are no strong, early clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight record high of 4,238.25 and then at 4,250.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Friday’s low of 4,191.75 and then at 4,160.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,752.00 and then at Friday’s high of 13,818.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at Friday’s low of 13,588.25 and then at 13,500.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 159 1/32 and then at 159 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 157 16/32 and then at 157 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slight higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 133.00.0 and then at 133.08.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.18.5 and then at 132.12.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading and hit a 2.5-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.2185 and then at 1.2200. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.2145 and then at 1.2100. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
June Nymex crude oil prices are modestly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $65.75 and then at $66.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at Friday’s low of $63.90 and then at last week’s low of $62.91. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures are solidly lower in early U.S. pre-market trading and seeing some profit taking after recent solid gains. The grain market bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid price uptrends still in place on the daily and the longer-term charts. There are no strong, early chart clues the major bull runs in the grains will end anytime soon. However, they are mature bull markets, and bull markets do not last forever. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff