Thursday, January 14–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are also pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins. The marketplace is tentative late this week following the U.S. House of Representatives impeachment of President Trump for an unprecedented second time. Trump has less than one week left in his term as president. The marketplace remains a bit edgy ahead of the inauguration of Joe Biden as the next U.S. president next Wednesday, as a massive show of U.S. national guard and other security forces are already in Washington, D.C.
Reports say that today President-Elect Biden will announce an up to $2 trillion stimulus plan for Americans hit by the pandemic. This news did limit selling interest in the global stock markets overnight and U.S. Treasury bond yields did tick up a bit.
Traders will be watching Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at Princeton University at midday today. Several other Fed officials also are slated to speak Thursday.
The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are slightly lower and are trading around $52.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note stands at 1.114%.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, import and export prices.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading and very close to last week’s record high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. A near-term price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the record high of 3,824.50 and then at 3,850.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,768.00 and then at 3,750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 13,015.00 and then at the record high of 13,125.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 12,850.00 and then at this week’s low of 12,767.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and not far above Tuesday’s contract low. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend in place on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 169 22/32 and then at 170 even. Shorter-term support lies at Wednesday’s low of 168 8/32 and then at the contract low of 167 11/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading and not far above the contract low scored Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 136.28.0 and then at 137.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at Wednesday’s low of 136.12.0 and then at the contract low of 136.01.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded a bit recently. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.2239 and then at 1.2280. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.2148 and then at 1.2100. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading on mild profit taking after hitting a 10-month high Wednesday. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage amid a price uptrend in place on the daily chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $53.93 and then at $54.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $52.00 and then at $51.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
US grain futures are mixed in early U.S. pre-market trading as the exhausted bulls are pausing. The grain markets bulls still have the strong overall near-term technical advantage. The grain futures are in major bull runs that could see still-higher prices, but one thing is guaranteed: much higher price volatility in the near term. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff