Monday, June 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mostly higher overnight and U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins.
European markets were boosted in part on notions the political situation in Italy has calmed down from earlier tensions, which suggests the Italian government could be friendlier toward the European Union.
This weekend’s Group of Seven meeting in Canada between the major industrialized countries of the world ended in discord, with the U.S. refusing to sign a G-7 statement. Trade and import tariffs were the major topic of discussion among the finance ministers of the major world economies. The trade-related spat between the U.S. and Canada that is becoming more vitriolic underscores the fading hopes the U.S. and its major trading partners can avoid an escalation in trade sanctions against each other.
On Tuesday President Trump is scheduled to meet with North Korean President Kim Jong Un. Trump is in Singapore today preparing for the meeting. Results of this meeting are very much up in the air and hard for the markets to gauge. This adds an element of uncertainty in the marketplace early this week.
The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading just below $65.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly higher today and seeing a bit of safe-haven demand.
There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Monday.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady and hit a three-month high overnight. The bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of 2,786.50 and then at 2,800.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Friday’s low of 2,755.75 and then at last week’s low of 2,733.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
September Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading, and not far below last week’s contract high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 7,200.00 and then at last week’s contract high of 7,258.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of 7,150.75 and then at 7,125.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 143 6/32 and then at 144 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 142 1/32 and then at 140 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 119.19.5 and then at 119.24.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119.11.5 and then at last week’s low of 119.04.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early U.S. trading, on a mild rebound from recent selling pressure. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but need to show some more power soon. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 93.410 and then at last week’s high of 93.860. Shorter-term support is seen at 93.000 and then at last week’s low of 92.760. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
July Nymex crude oil prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Recent technical damage inflicted still suggests more downside pressure in the near term. The shorter-term moving averages are still bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9- and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $65.74 and then at last week’s high of $66.24. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last week’s low of $64.22 and then at $64.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
GRAINS
Grain futures were weaker overnight. U.S. ag trade worries after the G-7 meeting tumult over the weekend are bearish for the grains. Good growing weather in the U.S. Corn Belt at present is also bearish. Traders are awaiting Tuesday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report.