Wednesday, November 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly higher openings when the New York day session begins. It’s a very busy day for U.S. economic data, with the highlight being a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell this afternoon at the Brookings Institution. Traders and investors will be watching to see if Powell makes a pivot from a hawkish to a bit more dovish U.S. monetary policy stance, given recent U.S. economic data that hints inflation may have peaked.
In overnight news, reports said public demonstrations in China increased Wednesday after a lull on Tuesday. China security forces are reported to be heavily deployed in major Chinese cities. The protests have prompted Chinese officials to somewhat ease their strict Covid restrictions.
In other news, Euro zone inflation fell in November for the first time since mid-2021, as the consumer price index was up 10%, year-on-year, compared to a reading of up 10.6% in October.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index weaker. Nymex crude oil prices are higher on a strong rebound after hitting an 11-month low Monday, and are trading around $80.25 a barrel. There are some reports OPEC at its meeting next week will consider cutting its collective crude oil production. Other reports say the cartel will leave its production unchanged. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.731%.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the ADP national employment report, preliminary corporate profits and the second estimate of third-quarter GDP, advance economic indicators, the ISM Chicago business survey, the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report and the Federal Reserve’s beige book.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,061.25 and then at of 4,094.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,974.50 and then at last week’s low of 3,937.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to show more power soon to keep it. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 11,900.50 and then at 12,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,580.50 and then at 11,400.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Prices Monday hit a seven-week high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 128 even and then at this week’s high of 128 17/32. Shorter-term support lies at 126 even and then at 125 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices Monday hit a seven-week high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 113.16.0 and then at this week’s high of 113.27.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 112.28.0 and then at 112.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Prices Monday hit a nearly five-month high. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0500 and then at this week’s high of 1.0580. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0402 and then at 1.0316. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
January Nymex crude oil prices are higher on a continued rebound after hitting an 11-month low on Monday. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage as a price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. However, the bears appear to be exhausted to suggest a market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $82.50 and then at $84.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $78.40 and then at $77.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were steady to firmer in overnight trading. A slight uptick in investor risk appetite at mid-week is friendly for the grain markets. Corn and soybean bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bears have the firm near-term technical advantage.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff