Friday, April 26–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
The U.S. data point of the day Friday is the personal income and outlays report that includes the PCE inflation indexes that the Federal Reserve watches very closely. The PCE price index is seen coming in up 2.6%, year-on-year. The core PCE index (excluding food and energy) is seen up 2.7% on an annual basis. Thursday’s PCE inflation numbers in the 1Q GDP report came in warmer than expected.
In overnight news, DowJones Newswires reported that Chinese gold buyers, “spooked by a protracted property slump and recent stock market rout, are rushing toward gold as economic uncertainty looms, propelling a global bullion rally.” Gold consumption in China in the first quarter rose nearly 6% from a year earlier. China’s imports of gold raw materials rose by 78% in the same period.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-day, 9-day and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 5,165.00 and then at 5,200.00. Support for active traders is seen at 5,100.00 and then at this week’s low of 5,050.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 17,827.50 and then at 18,000.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 17,600.00 and then at 17,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower on the daily bar chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 114 even and then at this week’s high of 115 5/32. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 112 27/32 and then at 112 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 108.00.0 and then at this week’s high of 108.08.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 107.04.0 and then at 107.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the near-term technical advantage as prices are still trending down on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.0775 and then at 1.0800. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0700 and then at this week’s low of 1.0648. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
June Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $85.00 and then at $85.64. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $82.00 and then at this week’s low of $80.70. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed overnight. Recent price gains in corn, soybeans and wheat futures markets are providing clues that market bottoms are in place. Wheat prices are now trending higher. More gains in beans and corn in the near term would suggest price uptrends can develop.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff