Monday, January 9–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. Trader and investor risk appetite is keener to start the trading week, following a “Goldilocks” U.S. jobs report last Friday that hints the U.S. economy this year just may come in for a so-called soft landing, instead of going into recession, amid an aggressive monetary-policy-tightening program from the Federal Reserve. Also, spirits are upbeat as China continues to open up its borders and its economy, including opening travel between Hong Kong and mainland China.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil futures prices are solidly higher and trading around $76.25 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching around 3.597%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Texas manufacturing survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are modestly up and hit a three-week high in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,950.00 and then at 4,000.00. Support for active traders is seen at 3,900.00 and then at 3,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 11,350.00 and then at 11,500.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,000.00 and then at last week’s low of 10,751.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 129 16/32 and then at 130 even. Shorter-term support lies at 128 even and then at 127 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 114.11.5 and then at 114.20.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 114.00.0 and then at 113.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.0767 and then at the December high of 1.0807. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0689 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
February Nymex crude oil prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $78.00 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at the overnight low of $73.47. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5
GRAINS
Prices were mixed to firmer overnight. More upbeat trader and investor attitudes in the marketplace this week should add some buying support to the grains. Bulls had faded recently to begin to still suggest near-term market tops are in place in the grains. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff