Thursday, September 7–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
U.S. stock indexes are pointed to weaker openings when the New York day session begins.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $87.00 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.27%.
In overnight news, China got more downbeat economic news as the world’s second-largest economy’s exports dropped 8.8% in August, year-on-year and contracting for a fourth consecutive month. China’s imports fell 7.3% in August, year-on-year. However, these numbers were slightly better than market expectations.
Meantime, the Euro zone second-quarter GDP came in at 0.1% from the first quarter and up a revised 0.5%, year-on-year. Those numbers were weaker than expected.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, revised productivity and costs, and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report. Several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to give speeches today.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of 4,553.25 and then at last week’s high of 4,597.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,495.75 and then at 4,450.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 15,590.00 and then at Wednesday’s high of 15,730.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,400.00 and then at 15,300.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 119 19/32 and then at 120 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 118 25/32 and then at 118 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 110.05.0 and then at 110.17.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 109.19.5 and then at 109.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are weaker and hit a six-month low in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 1.0801 and then at this week’s high of 1.0863. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0750 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $88.08 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $85.00 and then at $84.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. Not much new as traders await next week’s USDA monthly supply and demand report. Weather in the Midwest leans slightly bullish for soybean prices. Scorching heat and wind the past couple weeks have stopped soybean and corn plant growth to end the growing season early and likely crimp yields. Technicals are bearish for corn and wheat, and bullish for soybeans.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff