Tuesday, March 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
Asian and European stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward steady to narrowly mixed openings when the New York day session begins.
There is not much trader and investor anxiety in the world marketplace at present, which is bullish for world stock markets.
Reports say U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lightizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on Monday held talks with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He regarding key elements of the proposed U.S.-China trade agreement, according to China’s Xinhua News Agency. Marketplace attitudes are upbeat early this week on a trade deal getting done soon.
British lawmakers vote today on another Brexit plan offered by Prime Minister Theresa May. Despite some last-minute concessions from the European Union, the U.K. Parliament is expected to vote down May’s plan.
The key U.S. economic data point early this week is today’s consumer price index report for February, which is expected to come in at up 0.2% from January and up 2.2%, year-on-year.
The outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower on a corrective pullback from recent gains that put the index at a new high for the year last week. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around below $57.50 a barrel.
U.S. economic reports due for release Tuesday include the weekly Johnson Redbook and Goldman Sachs retail sales reports, and the consumer price index.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have regained upside momentum early this week. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 2,800.00 and then at the March high of 2,825.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at Monday’s low of 2.741.75 and then at last week’s low of 2,726.50. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have regained upside technical momentum early this week. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the March high of 7,241.00 and then at 7,275.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 7,150.00 and then at 7,100.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading today. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 145 22/32 and then at 146 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 145 3/32 and then at 144 25/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 122.20.0 and then at this week’s high of 122.25.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 122.12.0 and then at 122.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback. Prices hit a new high for the year last week. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are neutral to bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 96.895 and then at last week’s high of 97.160. Shorter-term support is at the overnight low of 96.375 and then at 96.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
April Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Trading has been choppy and sideways recently. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the March high of $57.88 and then at $58.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $57.00 and then at Monday’s low of $55.96. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures were mostly firmer overnight, on short covering and more upbeat grain trader attitudes about a U.S.-China trade deal getting done soon. Grain market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff