Friday, August 25–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian stock markets were mostly weaker and European stock markets were mostly firmer in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to higher openings when the New York day session begins.
The marketplace is tentative early Friday morning as traders are awaiting the event of the week, if not the month: the annual Federal Reserve symposium held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The meeting got under way Thursday evening. This meeting usually produces some market-sensitive news from world central bankers’ comments, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Powell is scheduled to speak at the confab on Friday morning at 10:05 a.m. EDT.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer and hitting a 5.5-month high overnight. Nymex crude oil futures prices are higher and trading around $80.00 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.253%.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are modestly higher in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 4,450.00 and then at this week’s high of 4,485.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,372.25 and then at the August low of 4,350.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 15,000.00 and then at 15,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 14,720.50 and then at the August low of 14,609.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 120 23/32 and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at 119 even and then at 118 12/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 110.00.0 and then at 110.10.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 109.00.0 and then at the contract low of 108.28.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a 2.5-month low overnight. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 1.0888 and then at this week’s high of 1.0944. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.0777 and then at 1.0750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $81.75 and then at $83.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low of $77.59 and then at $76.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mixed in overnight trading. Not much new. Weather in the Midwest is still slightly bullish for corn and soybean prices. Very hot temps and slack precip have been gripping the Midwest this week. Cooler temps are coming this weekend but not much rain. The Pro Farmer crop tour production estimates will be released Friday after the grains close.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff