Tuesday, January 10–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed
toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins.
Traders and investors today are awaiting the morning remarks from Federal
Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who will be speaking at a Riksbank
conference in Sweden. Despite a “Goldilocks” U.S. jobs report last Friday,
Fed officials’ remarks since then are still leaning hawkish on U.S.
monetary policy and a “higher for longer” interest rate scenario.
Risk appetite in the general marketplace has improved a bit this week as
China has been opening up its businesses and its borders in a pivot from
its strict Covid restrictions.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer on a
corrective bounce after strong losses Monday that pushed the index to a
multi-month low. Nymex crude oil futures prices are modestly up and
trading around $75.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S.
10-year Treasury note is presently fetching around 3.558%.
U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Johnson
Redbook and chain store sales reports, the NFIB small business index, the
IDB/TIPP economic optimism index and monthly wholesale trade.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S.
trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at this week’s high of 3,973.25 and then at 4,000.00.
Support for active traders is seen at 3,850.00 and then at 3,800.00.
Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S.
trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this
week’s high of 11,385.50 and then at 11,500.00. On the downside, shorter-
term support is seen at 11,000.00 and then at the January low of
10,751.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of
130 1/32 and then at 131 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s
low of 128 16/32 and then at 128 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 114.23.5 and
then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low
of 114.00.0 and then at 113.24.0. Sell stops likely reside just below
those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading, on
a corrective pullback after hitting a 6.5-month high on Monday. Bulls have
the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds
shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0812 and then
at 1.0850. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0730 and then at this week’s
low of 1.0689. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading.
The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance
at this week’s high of $76.74 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just
below technical support at $74.00 and then at the January low of $72.46.
Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Prices were mostly lower overnight. Risk appetite in the general
marketplace has down-ticked a bit Tuesday. Corn and wheat market bulls
have faded recently to begin to suggest near-term market tops are in
place. Soybean bulls remain more resilient, led by the surge in meal
futures.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading
accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to
you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1)
decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the
size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical
in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
- Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A
VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in
futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial
experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You
should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your
obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your
exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the
risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff