Friday, September 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were near flat to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are set for mixed openings when the New York day session begins. U.S. stock traders may be a bit more nervous today, as Friday is the “quadruple witching” day, whereby stock index futures, options on futures and options on stocks expire. Such days can produce higher volatility in the stock indexes.
The important outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and trading around $41.00. Crude oil bulls have had a good week, which has also encouraged bulls in other raw commodity markets, given that crude is arguably the sector leader. Meantime, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is trading around 0.68% today.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes leading economic indicators, the international transactions and current account report, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Thursday’s high of 3,386.50 and then at this week’s high of 3,419.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is seen at this week’s low of 3,310.25 and then at the September low of 3,286.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 11,288.50 and then at 11,400.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 11,000.00 and then at this week’s low of 10,904.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field amid recent choppy trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 177 14/32 and then at 178 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 175 28/32 and then at 175 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 139.24.0 and then at the September high of 139.29.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 139.10.5 and then at 139.05.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are near steady in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage but trading has turned sideways at higher levels. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance 1.1900 and then at at this week’s high of 1.1924. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1800 and then at this week’s low of 1.1759. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up and hit a two-week high in early U.S. trading. Bulls are having a very good week. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $41.49 and then at $42.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $40.00 and then at $39.42. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
US grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage in all three markets. Corn and soybeans are in bull runs, and wheat bulls have also showed some strength late this week. Export demand for U.S. corn and soybeans remains very strong and is presently trumping adequate global grain supplies. Early U.S. harvest results will be closely examined.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff