Friday, September 8–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Asian and European stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed to slightly weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Traders and investors are waiting for the next major U.S. data point, which will likely be the consumer price index report for August, out next Wednesday. Trading may remain quieter until that time.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $87.50 a barrel. The benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note yield is presently fetching 4.24%.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes monthly wholesale trade inventories and consumer credit.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly weaker in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of 4,553.25 and then at last week’s high of 4,597.50. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,483.25 and then at 4,450.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 15,590.00 and then at Wednesday’s high of 15,730.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,352.00 and then at 15,200.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 120 8/32 and then at 121 even. Shorter-term support lies at this week’s low of 118 25/32 and then at 118 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 110.17.0 and then at 110.24.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at this week’s low of 109.19.0 and then at 109.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Prices are trending lower and bears are in solid control. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 1.0801 and then at this week’s high of 1.0863. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0747 and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
October Nymex crude oil prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $88.08 and then at $89.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $86.00 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were mostly slightly lower in overnight trading. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Traders await next Tuesday’s USDA monthly supply and demand report, which will provide fresh production estimates. Weather in the Midwest leans slightly bullish for soybean prices but that has mostly been factored into prices. Technicals are bearish for corn and wheat, and bullish for soybeans.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff