Friday, December 31–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed in quiet overnight dealings, with some closed for the New Year holiday. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward slightly lower openings when the New York day session begins. Look for more low-volume trading on this last day of 2021. The U.S. government is closed today. Risk aversion is not keen late this week, but neither is risk appetite.
The key “outside markets” today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $76.25 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is near steady early today. Meantime, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.51%. For 2021, the 10-year yield was up 0.6%–the biggest yearly gain in eight years.
HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL MY VALUED READERS!!!
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading but close to this week’s contract and record high. Bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,799.75 and then at 4,825.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,713.25 and then at 4,684.25. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a bit weaker in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 16,500.00 and then at this week’s high of 16,659.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,304.25 and then at 16,200.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. Bulls have faded and prices are trending down on the daily chart. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 160 16/32 and then at 161 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 159 16/32 and then at this week’s low of 159 1/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance is seen at 130.18.0 and then at this week’s high of 130.24.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 130.03.0 and then at 130.0.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been trading sideways at lower levels for nearly four weeks. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1390 and then at 1.1417. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1292 and then at the December low of 1.1247. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Prices are still trending up on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $77.37 and then at $78.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at $74.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were mixed in overnight trading. Corn and soybean bulls still have the firm technical advantage, while wheat bulls have faded. Look for trading activity to pick up next week, as the holidays will have passed.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff