Wednesday, December 27–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
Israel has stepped up its offensive in Gaza, which has the international community very concerned about the heavy loss of innocent lives. The Russia-Ukraine war is close to its second year of conflict, with Ukraine stepping up its attacks on Russian military assets.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down and trading around $75.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.87%.
U.S. economic data due out Wednesday is light and includes the weekly Johnson Redbook retail sales report and the Richmond Fed business survey.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and not far below Tuesday’s contract high and high for the year. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,834.50 and then at 4,875.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,800.25 and then at last week’s low of 4,743.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading after hitting a contract high and new yearly high Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 17,111.25 and then at 17,250.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 16,964.50 and then at week’s low of 16,850.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and near last week’s four-month high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at last week’s high of 124 30/32 and then at 126 even. Shorter-term support lies at 124 even and then at last week’s low of 123 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s four-month high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 113.04.5 and then at 113.16.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at 112.16.0 and then at last week’s low of 112.06.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are higher and hit a 4.5-month high in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at 1.1150 and then at 1.1200. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1048 and then at 1.1000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
February Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $76.18 and then at $77.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $74.00 and then at $73.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
Grain futures prices were weaker in overnight trading. Not much new recently. Charts remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, but the recent price action in wheat markets suggest price bottoms are in place. Technicals are bearish for soybeans and fully bearish for meal and soybean oil, as all the soy markets are trending down on the daily bar charts.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff