Monday, March 29–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were near steady to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward steady to weaker openings when the New York day session begins. Today is a holiday-shortened week for many countries that will see their markets closed on Friday to observe the Good Friday holiday ahead of Easter Sunday, including the U.S.
The marketplace Monday morning is buzzing and still a bit nervous over news that a large investment fund, Archegos Capital Management, late last week quickly dumped $30 billion in holdings, including big positions in Viacom CBS and Discovery, possibly because the firm was over-leveraged and got margin calls. There was some concern about a contagion effect roiling the marketplace this week and some investment banks’ stocks shares dropped sharply overnight, but so far the stock and financial markets, in general, are not reacting significantly to the matter.
President Biden is set to unveil on Wednesday the first of two expected portions of the next phase of his U.S. economic agenda: a series of infrastructure proposals. The package would cost $3 trillion to $4 trillion and will likely include billions in new tax revenue.
The world continues to watch as salvage operations have partially moved the massive container ship that has been wedged in the Suez Canal, forcing its closure. Officials are staying the boat is now partially dislodged from one side of the canal but also say the toughest part of completely refloating the ship lies ahead. Oil prices were pressured a bit on this news.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index near steady after hitting a 4.5-month high late last week. Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower and trading around $60.85 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently 1.657%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 3,978.50 and then at 4,000.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at the overnight low of 3,928.75 and then at 3,900.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5
June Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 13,000.00 and then at 13,100.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 12,807.50 and then at 12,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading today. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 157 even and then at last week’s high of 157 8/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 155 19/32 and then at 155 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 132.00.0 and then at Friday’s high of 132.04.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.20.5 and then at 131.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
EURO CURRENCY
The June Euro currency futures are lower in early U.S. trading. Bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bearish early today, as the 4-day is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 1.1813 and then at 1.1847. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s low of 1.1780 and then at 1.1750. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
May Nymex crude oil prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today as the 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at $62.00 and then at $63.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $60.00 and then at the overnight low of $59.41. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures are mixed but mostly weaker in early U.S. pre-market trading. Grain traders await the very important USDA planting intentions and quarterly grains stocks reports on Wednesday. Trading is likely to remain quieter Monday and Tuesday, ahead of that key data. Grain market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
- Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff