Monday, June 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly weaker overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session begins and are at or near their record highs. There is still little risk aversion in subdued summertime trading. That’s allowing the stock indexes to continue to drift sideways to higher. The Wall Street Journal reported the U.S. stock market is seeing its quietest stretch of trading since 2017. Trading is likely to remain muted until Friday morning’s U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department, which is arguably the most important U.S. data point of the month.
The marketplace paid little attention to reports U.S. warplanes attacked Iran-backed militias near the Syria-Iraq border.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil futures are a bit weaker and trading around $74.00 a barrel after hitting a 2.5-year high of $74.45 overnight. Energy traders are awaiting Thursday’s OPEC meeting. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.517%.
U.S. economic data due for release Monday is light and includes the Texas manufacturing outlook survey.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
September S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading and poked to another contract and record high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,278.50 and then at 4,300.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at Friday’s low of 4,253.50 and then at 4,231.75. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
September Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading and not far below last week’s contract and record high. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 14,422.00 and then at 14,500.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 14,300.00 and then at 14,200.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. A price uptrend is in place on the daily chart and bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 160 even and then at 160 12/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at last week’s low of 158 18/32 and then at 158 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Friday’s high of 132.08.5 and then at 132.15.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at last week’s low of 131.24.5 and then at 131.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The September Euro currency futures are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are neutral early today, as the 4-day is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.1994 and then at 1.2026. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 1.1938 and then at 1.1900. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading after hitting a 2.5-year high of $74.45 overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the overnight high of $74.45 and then at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $73.00 and then at $72.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures are higher in early U.S. pre-market trading. Some short covering and perceived bargain hunting are featured after recent selling pressure. The weather market in the grains has fizzled, for now. Recent price action suggests major market tops are in place. Still, the historically hotter and drier months of July and August lie just ahead and those two months are also arguably the most important for the corn and soybean crops. On tap today is the weekly USDA export inspections report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff