Thursday, September 2–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to firmer openings when the New York day session begins, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures near record highs. It’s been a quieter trading week on this unofficial last week of summer. However, Friday’s U.S. employment situation report from the Labor Department could cause some volatility in markets. The August non-farm payrolls component of the jobs report is expected to see growth of 720,000 workers compared to a rise of 943,000 non-farm jobs in July. As the “summer doldrums” end next Tuesday when traders and investors come back to work after a three-day U.S. holiday weekend, focus may become keener on elements that could be unsettling for the market place, such as the surge in Covid cases, China’s government crackdown on its businesses that it says are making too much money, and North Korea’s nuclear program.
In overnight news, the Euro zone July producer price index came in hot, at up 2.3% from June and up 12.1%, year-on-year.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil futures prices are firmer and trading around $69.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.289%.
U.S. economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims report, the Challenger job-cuts report, the international trade report, revised productivity and costs, manufacturers’ shipments and inventories, and the monthly chain store sales index.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the contract high of 4,532.25 and then at 4,550.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,491.50 and then at 4,450.00. Sell stops likely reside below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are a firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the solid chart advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the contract high of 15,686.00 and then at 15,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at 15,500.00 and then at this week’s low of 15,409.25. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
December U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 163 27/32 and then at 164 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at 163 even and then at this week’s low of 162 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
December U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this week’s high of 133.22.0 and then at 134.00.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 133.14.0 and then at this week’s low of 133.07.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The December Euro currency futures are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage but a downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated to suggest a near-term market bottom is in place. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1880 and then at 1.1900. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.1850 and then at this week’s low of 1.1808. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
Nymex crude oil prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $69.64 and then at $70.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $67.84 and then at this week’s low of $67.12. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
U.S. grain futures were mostly lower overnight. The grain market bulls are in full retreat this week. Hurricane Ida has seriously disrupted shipping of U.S. corn and soybeans to overseas customers, and that’s very bearish. Most of U.S. corn and soybean exports go through the Mississippi River and Gulf of Mexico. Reports say China is now looking to Brazil to obtain soybeans, fearing that the U.S. won’t be able to supply their needs in the coming weeks. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff