Friday, November 24–Jim Wyckoff’s morning markets report
In overnight news, Israel and Hamas have agreed to a four-day ceasefire, with Israel agreeing to stop its military actions in Gaza, while Hamas releases some of the Israeli hostages in exchange. Risk appetite in the marketplace is up-ticked the past few weeks, as the Middle East conflict has not escalated (at least not yet) the way many market watchers thought it might.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $76.75 a barrel. The OPEC-plus meeting originally scheduled for this weekend has been moved back to next week, reportedly due to disagreements on whether to further cut the cartel’s collective crude oil production. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 4.465%.
U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. flash services and manufacturing purchasing managers indexes (PMI).
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
December S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly up in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,580.50 and then at 4,600.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 4,520.00 and then at 4,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
December Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 16,173.50 and then at 16,300.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 15,837.25 and then at 15,700.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower on profit taking after hitting a two-month high Wednesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 116 even and then at this week’s high of 116 18/32. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 114 27/32 and then at 114 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are down in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 109.11.5 and then at this week’s high of 109.21.0. Shorter-term technical support is seen at the overnight low of 108.25.0 and then at 108.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are trending higher on the daily bar chart. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are neutral to bullish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.1020 and then at 1.1050. Shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0910 and then at 1.0850. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
January Nymex crude oil prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of $78.46 and then at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $75.00 and then at this week’s low of $73.79. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
GRAINS
There was no grain futures trading overnight. On tap today is the weekly USDA export sales report. Not much new recently. Technicals remain overall bearish for corn and wheat, although my bias is that those markets have put in price bottoms, or are very close to doing so. Technicals are bullish for soybeans and meal as those markets are trending up.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff