Friday, May 18–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENTS
World stock markets were mixed in uneventful trading overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The relatively upbeat trader and investor attitudes in the market place continue to support buying interest in equities.
A feature in the marketplace this week is rising world government bond yields. The U.S. 10-year Treasury note is yielding above 3.0%. The rise in U.S. Treasury yields (falling prices) is a bit surprising, given some geopolitical storm clouds on the horizon.
The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading above $71.00 a barrel. Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is slightly higher and hit another five-month high overnight.
There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
June S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 2,741.25 and then at 2,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at this week’s low of 2,700.50 and then at 2,680.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5
June Nasdaq index December futures: Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of 6,936.25 and then at 6,976.75. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen Thursday’s low of 6,875.00 and then at at this week’s low of 6,854.25. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady and hit another contract low overnight. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 141 1/32 and then at 141 19/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight contract low of 140 5/32 and then at 140 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices are near steady early today. Prices hit a contract low Thursday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Wednesday’s high of 118.25.5 and then at 119.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the contract low of 118.10.5 and then at 118.05.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The June U.S. dollar index is firmer and hit another five-month high overnight. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the dollar index are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 93.750 and then at 94.000. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 93.240 and then at 93.000. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
June Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading, and not far below Thursday’s 3.5-year high. Bulls are in solid near-term technical control. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at Thursday’s high of $72.30 and then at $73.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $71.00 and then at $70.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
GRAINS
Grain futures were higher overnight. Bulls have gained a bit of upside momentum late this week. Good planting progress has been made in most of the U.S. Corn Belt this week. However, that is being trumped by some weather firms that have forecast a hotter and drier summer in the U.S. Corn Belt.