Wednesday, January 25–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Markets Report
Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European shares mostly down and Asian shares mostly up. China markets are quiet as the Lunar New Year holiday is being celebrated. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward lower openings when the New York day session begins.
In overnight news, Germany, the workhorse of the European Union, reported its business sentiment hit a seven-month high in January.
The World Bank and Swiss Federal Office for Customs and Border Security reported Swiss exports of gold to China surged in 2022, at 478 metric tons. That’s up from 274 tons in 2021.
The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly higher. Nymex crude oil futures prices are near steady and trading around $80.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.438%.
U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday is light and includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.
–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
March S&P 500 e-mini futures: Prices are down in early U.S. trading, on a corrective pullback after hitting a four-week high Monday. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of 4,056.75 and then at 4,100.00. Support for active traders is seen at this week’s low of 3,980.25 and then at 3,950.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
March Nasdaq index futures: Prices are down in early U.S. trading, on profit taking after prices hit a four-week high Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at this week’s high of 12,010.50 and then at 12,200.00. On the downside, shorter-term support is seen at this week’s low of 11,650.50 and then at 11,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0.
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES FUTURES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is even with the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is seen at 132 even and then at the January high of 132 31/32. Shorter-term support lies at 131 even and then at 130 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher in early U.S. trading. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 115.12.0 and then at 115.16.0. Shorter-term technical support lies at 115.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 114.14.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
EURO CURRENCY
The March Euro currency futures are weaker in early U.S. trading on profit taking. Prices Monday hit an eight-month high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages for the Euro are bullish early today, as the 4-day is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators for the Euro are bearish early today. The Euro currency finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.0962 and then at 1.1000. Shorter-term support is seen at 1.0838 and then at 1.0800. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
NYMEX CRUDE OIL
March Nymex crude oil prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. The shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today as the 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI and slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Look for buy stops to reside just above technical resistance at the January high of $82.66 and then at $83.14. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $79.57 and then at $78.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
GRAINS
Prices were mixed overnight. Recent risk aversion in the general marketplace is still a bearish element for the grain markets. Corn and soybean market bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat futures bears have the solid chart advantage. Grain market traders are focusing on the outside markets for their daily price direction. The next data point for grain traders is Thursday morning’s weekly USDA export sales report.
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff